Good morning everyone:

A well defined tropical low pressure system can be seen off the east coast of Madagascar and mainly the reason that thunderstorms are mostly isolated over the interior of South Africa. Combined with the tropical system there is also a upper-air high present over the interior and that does not help either. The eastern perimeter of the upper-air high runs from south to north over the eastern interior and in this narrow band there is enough unstable air that with moisture in the lower levels, heat storms may develop again over the northern Freestate running across Gauteng, the eastern Highveld into Limpopo by later this afternoon and tonight.

The flow is on-shore along the Kwazulu-Natal coast with a few odd showers at times but at the same time the flow becomes more off-shore along the west and south-west Cape coast with hot temperatures and low humidity. This may lead to veld fires again thus take care.  

Regards, Sakkie

Good morning everyone:

Still a few cloudy patches this morning over Gauteng and a few odd showers are still falling over parts of eastern Johannesburg. The tropical cyclone can now be seen along the eastern coast of Madagascar and is also the reason for less than the norm rain over most parts of the interior.

Pretoria northern and central parts only had around 50% of the normal rain for January and is also valid for most areas over North-West and the Freestate. Further south and west it is even worse and also the reason for extremely high average maximum temperatures over the last couple of weeks! The flow remain on-shore along the south, south-east and east coast and there may still be a few places along the coast with a few odd showers. The flow gradually becomes more off-shore along the west and south-west Cape coast and that means it will become warmer again.

Although there was a bit of rain over the southern parts of the Peninsula (42 hours ago) the higher temperatures and stronger winds will soon override the rainfall factor. This means fires that is still on-going may stand up again thus extreme care must be taken over these parts.   Surface moisture levels are still fairly high over North-West, the Freestate and Kwazulu-Natal for the development of isolated heat storms. There may even be a few showers moving in over the southern parts of Limpopo while there is still a few light rain patches in the Tzaneen area.

Have a lovely day.
Sakkie Nigrini

Good morning everyone.

Mostly cloudy conditions over most of Gauteng this morning and more than enough moisture for at least a few scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. This is also valid for the eastern Highveld with even a couple of places this morning with fog. Take care when you drive into fog patches, reduce speed and put on your lights!!

Although the temperatures will be lower it will not feel much cooler due to the fact that the moisture levels are much higher and that means you will feel warmer than it actually is. (You are not sick!!) A reasonable band of cloud from the southern extremes of Botswana extends south-eastwards over the central and eastern parts of North-West and there is a reasonable chance for showers and or thundershowers over these regions. This cloud band also extend to the northern and eastern Freestate towards Kwazulu-Natal. Just north of De Wetsdorp (Freestate) 8mm has fallen since midnight.

It may not sound much but if you had little or no rain 8 mm feel and sound like a lot. There is a slight coolness in the air over the Cape this morning and areas adjacent to the coast has a few cloudy patches this morning. Temperatures have also dropped overnight along the western escarpment and places like Springbok and Calvinia as reaches lows around 11-12 C. That is significantly lower than the last 24 hours and much needed relief after a week of hot weather. The tropical low pressure systems in the channel has eased but if you look at Madagaskar you will see a tropical low, near tropical cyclone to the north east.

With tropical systems very active over these regions the upper-air high becomes stronger over the interior of SA and that means after the coolness due to a few heat storms as far west as Kuruman it will start to warm up again. A few showers and thundershowers just missed the Winelands regions of the Western Cape but produce up to 18mm in and around the George area.

Take care and have a lovely day!
Sakkie Nigrini

Good Morning Everyone

There is enough moisture available over the central and western parts of North-West for scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers but it remain heat storms, the upper-air is in no way indicating severe unstable conditions and as you will be able to see from this picture, we have a weak tropical low in the channel and one can see in the north-east corner a well defined cyclonic circulation off the north east coast of Madagascar.

Never good when there is that much tropical lows off the east coast. The flow remain on-shore over the eastern parts of the country and that means there is more than enough moisture that can produce cloudy weather and with enough heat as I do expect, Isolated to scattered thundershowers. Over the south-west Cape it remain hot and dry and with the fires that has already started over the Cederberg areas one can expect more windy spots over most of the western –Cape regions.

The reason I say stronger gusts of wind is due to the fires that create a micro climate thus micro low pressure systems and that in turn produce stronger winds and is called thermal winds. On top of the fires there is a weak upper-air trough developing over the Cape and that may lead to thunderstorms (I say thunderstorms and not thundershowers!!) with lightning and no rain and may increase the fire risk over parts of the regions. Take extreme care.  

Regards, Sakkie

 

Good morning everyone:

Mostly cloudy to overcast at first and although there were a few thundershowers in the early hours of the morning it was only due to a weak cold front that kicked in from the east. The upper-air remain stable thus we will need a lot of heat again (not today) for enough uplift and thundershowers.

This is valid for most of the central and northern interior except the eastern escarpment where the escarpment is high enough for uplift and rain showers mainly confined to east of the escarpment. Although there is cooler air also moving in over the northern and central parts of North-West, it will still become hot and hopefully enough heat for the development of isolated heat storms.

Further south and south-west it remain dry and very hot and apart from sea breezes that will keep the coastal areas a bit cooler in the south-west, still hot to very hot away from the coast.

Regards, Sakkie

Good morning everyone:

The tropical low has moved in over the central parts of Mozambique and with a high in the upper-air still present over the interior of the country there is only a small chance again for a few heat storms this afternoon and evening. Over most of the interior it remain hot and humid and although the temperatures are not extremely high over the eastern and north parts the combination of fairly high moisture levels and fairly high temperatures make it feel much warmer than it is.

On the picture you can see there is still moisture over parts of North-West, Gauteng And Mpumalanga (even a few fog patches this morning) thus with enough heat during the day there should be a few heat storms again. Further south it is bone dry and the chance for anything significant is less than 5%. While the tropical low pressure systems develop one after the other east of the country the chance for rain remain small and isolated.

Regards, Sakkie

Good Morning everyone:

The second tropical low has developed in the channel as predicted by the models. This is never good for proper rain over the interior. Yes, there is enough moisture over Gauteng, the central and eastern parts of North-West as well as Kwazulu-Natal and Mpumalanga and with enough heat that can produce isolated heat storms, but it is and remain lucky storms. The greater part of the Eastern Cape and Kwazulu-Natal have a lot of low level moisture and may lead to light rain patches along the coast and adjacent interior areas. There is also a fair amount of moisture over Namibia with isolated heat storm mainly over the central and southern parts this afternoon.

Cloudy to overcast areas this morning is on the warm side but will also help a bit to put a small lid on extreme high temperatures over parts of North-West where it was very hot the last couple of days (IN Afrikaans: Bloedige warm toestande met maksimums groter as 35 C) It also will remain very hot over the Northern Cape with temperatures closing in on the 40 C mark over Gordonia. 

Regards,
Sakkie Nigrini

Good morning everyone:

As you can see a second tropical low has developed off the west coast of Madagascar, combined with an upper-air high across the country the chance for significant thundershowers are very small.

There is again some moisture over the western extremes of Namibia and a few spots of moisture over the far northern parts Of North-West. Although the upper-air high is in place with the very hot temperatures that will occur again there is a 10% chance for a few heat storms but it does not mean there will be a lot of rain.

The flow becomes a bit on-shore along the east coast (low level moisture) and may lead to a few light rain patches that may spread to the Lowveld as the day progress.   The flow is also on-shore along the south-west Cape coast and
includes the south coast with a few light rain patches. Over the interior mainly sunny and very hot becoming partly

Cloudy in the afternoon and as said above with a few very isolated heat storms.

Good morning everyone:

Mainly sunny and warm over most of the country but hot in the afternoon when it will be very hot over the central and western interior. There is a slight on-shore flow (see breeze) over the coastal

Areas in the south-west, south and east and although not extremely hot the combination of higher moisture with fairly high temperatures makes it feel much warmer. Also take into consideration that it is still fire season over most of the Western Cape, the Overberg and south-eastern Cape. Just 1-2km away from the coast the temperatures are much higher and there is also a lot less moisture,

Thus take care. Although the models want to forecast a new tropical low in the channel it does look that the present tropical system is moving slowly away from the channel, we will have to wait and see if a new low develops.

There are a bit of moisture over the western extremes of Namibia that may lead to a few isolated heat storms.

Have a lovely day,
Sakkie Nigrini

Good morning everyone:

The tropical low seem to move faster south and east and is already to the SSE of Madagascar. At the same time the upper-air high is still well in place over the interior but if the models are correct that a new tropical low will develop in the northern channel I cannot see that much happening over the country in the form of thundershowers. The only plus fact is that the models has maintained the present tropical system in the channel for today and that seem to give a false signal for the next couple of days.

We will have to wait and see if a new low develops in the channel. At present not much going on over the country apart from a few cloudy patches along the escarpment due to on-shore flow and that include a place like Polokwane this morning. There is some development over northern Namibia that may lead to a few heat storms.

With no significant cloud present over most of the interior it should become rather warm again and as always very hot over the central and western interior. This is good news for Limpopo where flood water is still subsiding but bad news

For the central interior where only a few places had good rain over the week-end and others zip!